Orlando-Cleveland Game 4

The following are the keys to victory for each team:
Orlando wins if :

1) Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis control the game. In Game 3, Hedo had a terrible (that's an understatement) shooting night but he still managed to get to the free throw line and get his points, while also putting the Cavs in the penalty early on in the quarter. His seven assists were impressive, considering the fact that Cleveland did everything possible (they were hand-checking him as soon as he got a foot behind the three point line) to keep him out of the paint. Look for Cleveland to force Hedo into making some plays before they start agressively trapping his pick and rolls as they did in Game 3.

As for Rashard Lewis, he has been Mr. Consistensy for the Magic. You can write him down for an efficient 17-25 points right now.

2) Dwight Howard makes his free-throws. "Superman" is going to get hammered everytime he is two feet from the basket. 14 of the Magic's points were a result of Dwight's free throws in Game 3.

3) Continue the excellent defense. As much as analysts say that "so and so" just isn't knocking down shots. The Orlando Magic have played very well thus far. They are making James work for every point and they are closing out very effectively on all the shooters, I don't like to put it on the refs, but clearly LeBron has been getting an inordinate amount of the calls for him and avoiding plenty of calls that should go against him. The Magic's defense would look a lot better if James was not living on the free throw line.

Cleveland Wins if:

1) LeBron gets 50 tonight. He is averaging 41 points for the series and they are still trailing the series 1-2. The Magic are playing very good defense on the rest of the Cavs. It is clear that the Magic do not want any role players penetrating into the paint and they do not want them taking open 3-pointer. In essence, they have reduced every player not named LeBron into a 12-18 foot jump shooter.

2) LeBron gets off to a torrid start. Despite what Mo insists, this team has lost its confidence and it has no idea how to play an elite team like the Magic (they were 3-6 in the regular season against the Magic, Lakers, and Celtics). The Cavs have to get their swagger back if they want to win this game.

3) Zydrunas Ilgauskaus can do his primary job on offense (pick and pop). The 7-3 center has to be able to shoot over the 6-9 Rashard Lewis. This is probably the only semi-mismatch that the Cavs have over the Magic (besides Lebron, of course) and they have yet to take advantage of it.

The following are things that the opposing team is hoping for:

Orlando hopes that:

1) LeBron is exhausted from penetrating and just settles for jumpers. Never mind hope, Stan Van and Dwight are praying that this is the case. As Stan said and every basketball fan is aware of, when LeBron penetrates good things happen. A collective "oh crap" is uttered by every Magic fan whenever LeBron drives hard to the basket.

2) Cleveland gets off to a slow start. As was mentioned the Cavs are on the edge and if Dwight is throwing down dunks, Hedo is penetrating, and the Magic are raining down threes, while Mo, Delonte, and Z can't hit a jumper, then this game could be over in the first half. (I don't think this will be the case, since LeBron can find a way to keep them in it given the must-win nature of the game).

Cleveland hopes that:

1) Orlando does not bring a sense of urgeny to tonight's game.

2) Dwight bricks his free throws

Prediction:

Orlando wins. Even though the Cavs' role players have been missing some shots that they are capable of making, they are not getting too many open looks (and even when they do have open looks, the thought of a long, athletic Magic defender racing towards them seems to be in their head whenever they square up to shoot). So, I don't see any unexpected Cav from having some sort of breakout game. The Magic are a confident team that has been more tested than any other team in the Conference finals, while the Cavs were an arrogant team that face no adversity whatsover in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

The Magic's toughness originates from knowing that they have the ability to win a close game in the fourth quarter, while the Cavs' confidence depends on the moment (up 20, just hit a 3, dunked it on somebody, LeBron blocks somebody on a fastbreak, etc.)

The Cavs have been absorbing siginifant jabs since Orlando's game 1 comeback and a near knockout in Game 2. To their credit, they got off the mat, but were quicly bombarded by the Magic in Game 3. Look for the Magic to go for the knockout tonight.